Matt Haughey ran the numbers of Apple’s stock price (APPL) before and after each Apple keynote presentation since 1997. The numbers, like Matt’s classy site with the tasteful Google ads, are impressive:
The last two years have been amazing, showing 7.3% growth if you held AAPL for 24 hours, and 11.9% if you held it for 48 hours. Bear in mind that a “good” investment is one that does about 10% a year and these numbers are for 1 and 2 days of investment time. If you did this for the past five years, you would have gained 1.5% when held for 24 hours each year and 3.7% when held for 48 hours. Overall, for the entire past decade, the numbers are 1.2% growth for 24 hours and 2.2% growth for 48 hours. Of course, if you held the $10,000 of shares bought in 1997, your investment would be worth $525,187 today (with AAPL around $200/share today, counting two 2-for-1 splits).
I went all in on Intel in my freshman high school Fantasy Stocks game in Statistics and won for the semester. That’s when I knew I was destined to be a tech pundit. Not because I got it right, but because that was the first time I felt smug about a lucky guess that didn’t affect my life in any measurable way.
Project Page [KeynoteIndexFund.com]