Gates and Jobs ride into the sunset: what to expect from the new boys at CES and MacWorld
Next week, Bill Gates and Steve Jobs hand over their New Year's speaking gigs to new blood.
At the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas, Gates' stage will be manned by Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer and Sony chairman Howard Stringer. Over at Macworld, Apple marketing chief Phil Schiller will run the show for the first time.
All three are entertaining presenters. But unlike Gates and Jobs, they all have something to prove.
Ballmer's reign at Microsoft sees huge revenues from its core business, but chronic marketing woes at the periphery. A sequence of incompatible DRM platforms helped secure Apple's dominance of digital music. Billions were spent losing console wars with Sony and Nintendo. Windows Vista, years late and mostly hated when it finally arrived, is Ballmer's crowning achievement to date.
Many believe he'll announce a Zune-phone next week. More certain is a standard yawnfest of corporate mythologizing and stuff we already know about, like Windows 7 and Home Server. It'll be obvious when Ballmer, a naturally enthusiastic fellow, doesn't care about something: viva Games for Windows!
Surprises to watch for: New haircut. Zunephone. Us staying to the end if there's no Zunephone.
As captain of an ungainly ship that employs some 180,000 people, even after layoffs, Stringer's got to make a convincing case that Sony does more than just make one of everything.
Trying economic circumstances recently put him back at square one after some successes. He unified a tech-zaibatsu that should be a dozen different companies, hired Spiderman to print money, and polished off maniacal rival Ken Kutaragi. However, Sony's products are still pricey marvels ill-suited to hard times, and the company is still grossly over-manned. He's been slow to unravel its engineering culture and instinct for self-destructive propriety. Vultures circle over the PlayStation 3 after dismal holiday sales.
Stringer won't opt for a mere gadget show. He must articulate an all-encompassing vision of how we'll all be using technology in years to come. He'll pitch Sony's gear as nodes of a cradle-to-grave entertainment ecosystem built around Home.
Surprises to watch for: OLED everything. Blu-Ray passed over in relative silence. PS3 Hail Mary strategy.
At Apple, Schiller's a potent salesman, and he's used to being Jobs' on-stage sidekick. But he lacks his boss's legendary charisma, and can be made a fool of: at one recent event, aides had to rescue him when a reporter started asking unscripted questions.
That said, the world knows he's there to shift product, not to speak broadly of his company's future from the perspective of an industry leader. This makes his job easier. All he has to do is announce nice new toys and fans will be happy: a new Mac Mini is all but expected.
Surprise to watch for: Steve Jobs
Finally, spare a thought for the third keynote speaker at CES: Ford's Alan Mulally. He'll have to address his industry's dire situation without allowing his contribution to descend into self-justification. Mulally's good at putting on a brave face, but could forget that tech-heads aren't the only ones watching. If he sticks to the script and announces hybrids for 2011, in-car internet and docking systems, he'll impress us at the risk of seeming irredeemable to the rest of the corps. Talk of austerity and work ethic will help him keep the wolves at bay for a few more weeks.
Boing Boing Gadgets heads to CES next Tuesday.
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"Billions were spent losing console wars with Sony and Nintendo."
To be fair, I'd say that billions were spent winning a console battle with Sony only to lose the war to Nintendo.
I see I'm not the only one wondering if Steve might wander on saying 'Just one more thing'
It would be hugely classy for Steve to just show up and talk to people, and it would completely demolish any rumors about his health. If I'm not mistaken, Apple has only said he's not giving the Keynote, not that he's not attending the show, right?
amusing and well written, thanks
Schiller's never "delivered the keynote" before, either, but he's been on stage with Jobs for keynotes as long as I can remember.
If Jobs doesn't show up to MacWorld at all, that's going to hurt Apple stock. Jobs is aware of this. He'll be there or the company will suffer.
Here's how I imagine it went down:
STEVE: What have we got for MacWorld? Anything really great?
PHIL: New "09" versions of the consumer software and speed bumps to the iMacs. The new display port, and it's the "greenest" Mac ever.
STEVE: That's it? Fuck it! I'm not going. You do it.
PHIL: Industry pundits are going to be screaming. They'll be saying you're dead. The stock price....
STEVE glares. PHIL ducks. Nearby, a tray of fresh organic strawberries bursts into flames.
PHIL: Anything? Can I at least call you on the iChat and people can see your face on the screen?
STEVE wanders over and picks up a persimmon, and tosses it in the air a few times then pitches it out the window, narrowly missing PHIL.
PHIL: I'll -- just ask you when you're in a better mood. PHIL leaves very quietly.
The console war is dumb, and a product of teenage gamer's delusions. You don't have to be #1 in the market to be successful and make money as long as there is room in the market for you. Not sure if MS is quite there with their repair bill woes, but they now profit off of every console sold.
I'm really looking forward to the sharp wit of the BBG crew when mixed with bad CES gadgets. It's a recipe for good times.